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BEMA Intel
KEY TAKEAWAYS
BEMA Intel Industry Indicators
- In the first quarter of 2025, Commercial Aisle Bakery dollar sales for the quarter totaled $22.9 billion, a slight decrease of 0.2% compared to the corresponding quarter in 2024. Unit sales were also down slightly 0.9% for the same period, continuing to suggest that increased prices due to high inflation have impacted consumer demand in the category.
- In the first quarter of 2025, In-Store Bakery dollar sales were down slightly 0.1% to $4.8 billion compared to the corresponding quarter a year ago, with unit sales up 0.9%.
- Importantly, the Grain-Based Foods Stock Index was down 12.4% in the first quarter of 2025, while the S&P 500 increased 6.7%.
- The Consumer Price Index for Bakery Products increased slightly at 1.2% in March 2025 compared to the previous year, following major increases in the CPI that began during the inflationary period in 2022.
- Baking ingredient costs for some categories tracked by Milling & Baking News’ Bakery Ingredient Indexes are up substantially. The index for devils food cake was up 118.6% in 2025Q1 compared to a year ago due to high cocoa and egg prices. The index for cake donuts was up 85.4% over the same time period. For white pan bread, however, the index was down 10.1%.
- Unemployment increased to 4.2% in March 2025. Unit labor costs are leveling out somewhat, with an increase of 1.4% for 2025Q1 compared to the same quarter a year ago.
- Flour production was up slightly 0.8% in 2025Q1 compared to a year ago.
BEMA Intel Member Pulse Survey
- Only 15% of equipment manufacturers report 2025 Q1 bookings were up. This percent is most similar to Pulse Survey 2020 Q2 baseline report of 13% indicating bookings were up. (This is nearly the lowest share reporting ‘bookings up’ in the 5 years of BEMA Intel; lowest since the beginning of the COVID19 pandemic.)
- Only two-thirds (66%) of equipment manufacturers are positive about their company’s 2025 business outlook for the next 6 months, down 20 points from 2024Q4. (This is the lowest share reporting a positive business outlook in the 5 years of BEMA Intel; lower than the beginning of the COVID19 pandemic.)
- 64% of equipment manufacturers are positive about the 2025 industrial/commercial bakery channel outlook in the next 6 months, down from 87% last quarter. (This is the lowest share reporting positivity in the industrial/commercial channel in the 5 years of BEMA Intel; significantly lower than the beginning of the COVID19 pandemic.)
Top challenges in 2025Q1:
- Trade uncertainties: 79% (compared to 49% previous quarter)
- Increased raw material costs: 51% (compared to 28% previous quarter)
- Unfavorable business climate (e.g., taxes, regulations): 42% (compared to 25% previous quarter)
Summary 2025 Q1
What is BEMA INTEL?
The BEMA Intel Industry Summary report presents at-a-glance topline trends for key U.S. economic and commercial baking industry indicators. Updated quarterly, this overview provides a high-level view of the state of commercial baking and equipment manufacturing industries to aid in planning and critical decision making.
BEMA Intel Industry Indicators
This report contains detailed, historical. and current trending data for key industry indicators most helpful in understanding the changing health of the U.S. commercial baking and equipment manufacturing industries, as provided by data from Circana, Milling and Baking News, USDA and more. The complete report is only available to BEMA members.
BEMA Intel Member Pulse Survey
A confidential online survey among BEMA equipment manufacturing members reflecting global and U.S. industry outlooks, company outlook by product channel and bookings/sales, and top business challenges. The full results of this survey are only available to BEMA members.