BEMA Intel

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM BEMA INTEL Q2 REPORT

BEMA Intel Industry Indicators

• In the second quarter of 2025, Commercial Aisle Bakery dollar sales for the quarter totaled $22.7 billion, a decrease of 0.9% compared to the corresponding quarter in 2024. Unit sales were also down slightly 1.0% for the same period, continuing to suggest that increased prices, economic uncertainty and other market factors have impacted consumer demand in the category. Dollar and unit sales were down significantly for commercial aisle bread, cakes, snack cakes and brownies, squares & bars.
• In the second quarter of 2025, In-Store Bakery dollar sales were up 3.4% to $4.9 billion compared to the corresponding quarter a year ago, with unit sales up 1.2%.
• Importantly, the Grain-Based Foods Stock Index was down 16.1% in the second quarter of 2025, while the S&P 500 increased 13.0%.
• The Consumer Price Index for Bakery Products increased slightly at 1.5% in June 2025 compared to the previous year, following major increases in the CPI that began during the inflationary period in 2022.
• Baking ingredient costs for some categories tracked by Milling & Baking News’ Bakery Ingredient Indexes are up substantially. The index for devils food cake was up 68.4% in 2025Q2 compared to a year ago due to high cocoa and egg prices. The index for cake donuts was up 67.4% over the same time period. For white pan bread, however, the index was down 2.6%.
• Unemployment decreased slightly to 4.1% in June 2025. Unit labor costs increased 3.1% for 2025Q2 compared to the same quarter a year ago.
• Flour production was down 1.9% in 2025Q2 compared to a year ago.

BEMA Intel Member Pulse Survey

• 32% of equipment manufacturers report 2025 Q2 bookings were up, compared to only 15% last quarter. (Last quarter’s share reporting ‘bookings up’ was nearly the lowest share in the 5 years of BEMA Intel; lowest since the beginning of the COVID19 pandemic at 13%.)
• Only 56% of equipment manufacturers are positive about their company’s 2025 business outlook for the next 6 months, down from 66% in the first quarter. (This is the lowest share reporting a positive business outlook in the 5 years of BEMA Intel; lower than the beginning of the COVID19 pandemic.)
• 69% of equipment manufacturers are positive about the 2025 industrial/commercial bakery channel outlook in the next 6 months, up slightly from 64% last quarter. (These are the lowest shares reporting positivity in the industrial/commercial channel in the 5 years of BEMA Intel; significantly lower than the beginning of the COVID19 pandemic.)

Top challenges in 2025Q2:

• Trade uncertainties: 76% (compared to 49% in 2024Q4)
• Increased raw material costs: 46% (compared to 28% in 2024Q4)
• Unfavorable business climate (e.g., taxes, regulations): 46% (compared to 25% in 2024Q4)

Summary 2025 Q2