BEMA Intel

The BEMA Intel Industry Summary report presents at-a-glance topline trends for key U.S. economic and commercial baking industry indicators. Updated quarterly, this overview provides a high-level view of the state of commercial baking and equipment manufacturing industries to aid in planning and critical decision making.

This summary highlights quarterly data from two detailed reports:

BEMA Intel Industry Indicators
Detailed, historical and current trending data for key industry indicators most helpful in understanding the changing health of the U.S. commercial baking and equipment manufacturing industries, as provided by a BEMA member panel representing baking equipment manufacturers, ingredient manufacturers and industry allies. The complete report is only available to BEMA members.

BEMA Intel Member Pulse Survey
A confidential online survey among BEMA equipment manufacturing members reflecting global and U.S. industry outlooks, company outlook by product channel and bookings/sales, and top business challenges. The full results of this survey are only available to BEMA members.

Summary 2023 Q4

BEMA Intel Industry Indicators

• In the fourth quarter of 2023, Commercial Aisle Bakery dollar sales for the quarter totaled $22.5 billion, a gain of 0.8% over the corresponding quarter in 2022. However, unit sales were down 2.6% for the same period, continuing to suggest that increased prices due to high inflation have impacted consumer demand in the category.
• In the fourth quarter of 2023, In-Store Bakery dollar sales were up 1.2% to $5.0 billion compared to the corresponding quarter a year ago, although unit sales were down -1.6%.
• The Grain-Based Foods Stock Index was down 7.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the S&P 500 increased 24.2%.
• The Consumer Price Index for Bakery Products increased moderately at 3.6% in December 2023 compared to the previous year.
• Baking ingredient costs for almost all categories tracked by Milling & Baking News’ Bakery Ingredient Indexes are on the decline. The index for cake donuts was down a substantial 44.9% in 2023Q4 compared to a year ago and down 31.1% for devils food cake. Ingredient costs for white pan bread continued to decrease 16.6% in 2023Q4 compared to a year ago.
• Unemployment remains fairly low at 3.7%, and Unit Labor Costs are leveling out somewhat, with an increase of 3.7% for 2023Q4 compared to the same quarter a year ago.
• Flour production was down 1.4% in 2023Q4 compared to a year ago.

BEMA Intel Member Pulse Survey

• Equipment manufacturer industry outlook improved in 2023Q4, with 85% expressing a ‘positive’ outlook, compared to 73% in 2023Q3.
• In the area of company bookings, 43% of equipment manufacturers reported increased bookings in 2023Q4, up from 35% in 2023Q3.  Only 16% of equipment manufacturers reported decreased bookings in 2023Q4, down from 24% in the third quarter of 2023.
• Attracting and retaining a quality workforce is the top concern for equipment manufacturers, with 53% citing it as a challenge in 2023Q4.
• Concerns over raw material costs have decreased significantly, with 35% of equipment manufacturers reporting concerns in 2023Q4, down from a high of 91% in 2022Q2. Concerns are also declining in the area of transportation/logistics (20% in 2023Q4 compared to a high of 78% in 2021Q4).
• Concerns about a weaker domestic economy and sales for products to U.S. customers is on the decline from last quarter, with 29% of manufacturers citing this as a concern in 2023Q4.

Combined, the information presented is intended to help industry professionals better identify existing and potential industry trends, recognize critical factors impacting supply and demand, and position themselves to adapt to evolving circumstances.

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